Shortage of U.S. skilled workers by 2020?
By Tom Crouch, CPA, CIA, CISA, and Attorney
Part 11 -- Skilled Labor and High School Dropouts
September 17, 2009
Thirty percent of U.S. public high school students dropout. This statistic has remained virtually unchanged even though many approaches have been tried. (The 30% statistic is supported by references at the end.) Has the U.S. education system learned from this failure? Is it time to consider a radically different approach?
Thirty percent of U.S. public high school students dropout. This statistic has remained virtually unchanged even though many approaches have been tried. (The 30% statistic is supported by references at the end.) Has the U.S. education system learned from this failure? Is it time to consider a radically different approach?
In the current environment, most of those high school dropouts are likely to be considered unskilled workers. Many experts believe that there will be more unskilled workers chasing fewer unskilled jobs. Can we change the current approach and move more of these people into at least lower level skilled labor jobs?
People who get into lower level skilled labor jobs often move over time into higher level skilled labor jobs. If we can help move the likely high school dropouts toward lower level skilled labor jobs, will we have greatly improved their likely lifetime earnings? The lower level skilled labor jobs generally pay about twice the U.S. minimum wage. Would such a change in likely outcomes be kinder and more beneficial to those likely high school dropouts? Aren’t we all better off when more people are productive taxpayers?
Around 50% of high school graduates go to college and about half of those will complete a four year college degree. College graduates comprise about 25% of the work force. High schools are primarily structured for college bound students instead of educating the 75% who are not likely to ever complete a four year college degree. A key point here is that about 75% of the work force does not have a four year college degree.
U.S. high school students are more likely to fail the ninth grade than any other high school grade. Also, K-12 students are more likely to fail the ninth grade than any other grade. 30% of high school students drop out of high school. Students can be socially promoted to the ninth grade but high school (grades nine through twelve) credits must be earned. A child that has been socially promoted to high school is less likely to ever complete high school. The students who fail the ninth grade twice rarely graduate from high school. Students who do not complete high school within 5 years usually do not graduate from high school. Most of these points can be confirmed by seasoned high school faculty members.
Since 75% of the currently existing jobs do not require a college degree, the key focus of increasing the skilled laborers available should be on this segment. Roughly 40% of this 75% (or 30% of the work force) are folks who probably were high school dropouts. Many of these people later completed their GED (General Equivalency Diploma). Many high school dropouts score very well on their GED (adult education program directors can confirm this assertion). Many people who complete their GED go on to complete certificate and degree programs at community and technical colleges. Some of those completing a GED may later obtain a four year college degree.
Some people learn well by reading a book and listening to a teacher, while others learn well by seeing first hand how something is done. The traditional high schools are primarily structured for those who learn well by reading a book and listening, while vocational or trade schools seem to work very well for those who learn well by seeing first hand how something is done. Even though these folks may learn differently from those on the traditional high school track, they still do learn.
One
seasoned company employee stated the following:
"I
graduated from a co-op vocational high school (we worked two weeks
and attended school two weeks, and had an additional class period
during our school session for classroom work on our vocational
field). As I recall our percentage of students who went on to obtain
additional educational training was somewhat higher than the regular
high schools."
What if students are given the option of going to vocational school at any point after completing the eight grade? A majority of the students who are likely to become high school dropouts would choose to go to vocational school. The students who choose the vocational school route are more likely to stay in school longer. Also, they are more likely to be better prepared for the work force than the students who dropout of the traditional high schools.
U.S. high schools usually grant three to six different types of high school diplomas. Is a high school diploma really required to later become a skilled worker? Even though the high school diploma is the preferred option, it is not critical to becoming a lower level skilled worker, or even ultimately a high level skilled worker. If a student is not going to proceed on with education beyond high school, they appear to be more likely to become a skilled worker by going to vocational school instead of taking high school classes. A skilled labor shortage is coming and even the lower level skilled labor job training provided by high school vocational schools should lead to decent jobs.
Some observers have noted that much of the general knowledge gained in high school is what might be called "throw away knowledge." It consists largely of things needed to pass a class but after the class is completed, the knowledge is unlikely to ever be needed again. For the high school age students who will not pursue a four year college degree, "throw away knowledge" might comprise 50% to 80% of the knowledge gained in high school. Thus, the return on this investment is far less than the likely return on the vocational training.
The high
school vocational schools could include a thirty to sixty minute
daily class directed toward the knowledge and skills needed to pass
the GED. It appears that those high school vocational students would
go ahead and pass their GED. The GED and high school vocational
training would improve the likelihood of being hired for a job.
These students would be more likely to be accepted into a community
and technical college. Furthermore, these students might be much
more likely to complete the more advanced programs leading to higher
level skilled labor jobs.
One
seasoned professional shared the following story:
"One of
my first jobs was for a sheet metal manufacturer. Their products are
widely used in America. The GM of the factory (my boss) was a
graduate engineer from Scotland. He received all of his schooling in
Scotland. They had an a different educational system than we have
here in the US. At age 14, he began work in metal shop. He would
spend 6 months in the shop and 6 months attending high school and
then college. By the time he graduated from college, he was a master
at all of the jobs in the factory and even advanced to the level of
a tool and die maker (the guys who made the tools that shaped the
product). He told me that he could run every machine in the shop
long before he graduated high school and could have elected not to
attend college and would have been able to hold any skilled labor
position in the machine shop. He told me that most of his boyhood
friends attended school in the same way working for different
companies as they were able."
The
vocational school approach is more widely used in Europe, Australia,
and Japan.
Perhaps
we just need to do more benchmarking with the educational systems in
other countries.
Are we
being fair when students who perform poorly in an academic setting
are being denied the option of going to a vocational school? Most
students are required to complete the 10th grade before
they can gain admission to a high school level vocational school.
In some other countries, vocational school is an option with much
less formal education being attained before admission.
Are we
depriving some children of a real chance to learn a skill that the
market place wants? Are we just trying to make everyone like us?
Do we really care about the likely high school dropouts when we have
a system which does not work for them? Are we really being fair to
those kids that might soar in a vocational school setting but they
are prevented from entering?
We need
to permit kids to go to vocational school after the 8th grade. Will
there be the political power to support the educational shift?
Several
factors should converge before 2020.
-- The
economy will recover from the 2008-2009 downturn.
-- The
job market for skilled labor will improve.
--
The ratio of unskilled workers to unskilled jobs will continue to
increase
(this
could be very troublesome). There will be more unskilled workers
seeking fewer unskilled jobs.
-- High
school teachers will continue to retire at a faster pace than they
are
being
replaced (a high school teacher shortage is clearly on the way).
There
has
been a noticeable decline in the college students seeking to become
high
school
teachers. 50% of new teachers leave the profession within 5 years.
-- The
business need for skilled workers at all levels will begin
to pinch many businesses.
-- The
high school level vocational schools will begin to feel more
pressure
to
provide more training areas for lower level skilled worker jobs.
-- The
parents of high school age students will not tolerate the increasing
number of students per class room.
-- The
high school teachers still on the job will become far less tolerant
of
their
increasing work load due to more students per class.
-- The
teacher's unions will become less likely to resist permitting high
school
age
students to opt for vocational school. The pressures from the
over-worked
teachers and angry parents due to crowded classes should cause this
shift.
-- Many
of the lower level and mid-level skilled workers will be pulled
upward to higher
skilled labor jobs. This should create more job openings for the
mid-level and lower
level
skilled labor jobs. Thus, there are likely to be far more job
openings for these
type
jobs.
-- The
trade and industry groups will be pushing to solve the skilled labor
shortages. Those groups will also become concerned about the
shortage
of
high school teachers. These groups will also recognize that if the
likely
high
school dropouts go to a high school vocational school that it might
work
to
solve several problems.
-- Thus,
the factors above should converge for the perfect storm. The
politicians
will
come around to supporting kids being permitted to go to vocational
school after the 8th grade.
The
vocational school approach could work much better for many students.
A shift in the education focus could greatly mitigate the coming
skilled labor shortage.
Copyright
© 2009 by Tom Crouch All rights are reserved.
References on High School Dropout Rates
Jay P. Greene, Ph. D.
Senior Fellow, The Manhattan Institute for Policy Research
Research Associate,
Senior Fellow, The Manhattan Institute for Policy Research
Research Associate,
The
Christian Science Monitor had an article --
US
high school graduation rate climbs to 69.2 percent
http://edlabor.house.gov/newsroom/2009/05/high-school-dropout-crisis-thr.shtml
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