Shortage of U.S. skilled workers by 2020?
By Tom Crouch, CPA, CIA, CISA, and Attorney
There are numerous authoritative sources that are projecting a severe shortage of US skilled workers by 2020. In fact, similar shortages are expected in nearly every major industrial country. The websites listed below are just a few that address this topic.
http://entrepreneurialconnection.com/skills/Module29/one.asp
http://dayton.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2003/06/09/focus1.html
http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/042/laborshortage.html
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0KOC/is_4_6/ai_103380602/pg_4
http://www.chemistry.org/portal/a/c/s/1/feature_pol.html?DOC=policymakers%
5Cpol_nsb_report.html
http://www.mrotoday.com/mro/archives/exclusives/LaborShortages.htm
http://www.witc.edu/edfuture/docs/EnvironmentalScanningNotes.rtf
Can you afford to retire if wages are expected to escalate? Could such a situation diminish the purchasing power of your retirement money?
Should organizations begin to do much more long term manpower planning?
If not, what might happen?
Will we actually have a severe skilled labor shortage? Why so?
What should your organization do to prepare for it?
Should such a projection change your investing?
Based on the information on the websites referenced above, I believe that skilled workers are likely to have very high real wages for their work in 2020. In fact, the good gravy train might start as early as 2010 and continue until 2025 to 2030.
I want to encourage everyone who is a skilled worker, or who is capable of becoming a skilled worker, to try to be working during the gravy years noted above. Each person should try to pace themselves so that they can maintain their health and work skills throughout as many of the gravy years as possible. In essence, the purchasing power of the wages during those years should be rather high. Also, the retirement incomes are not likely to keep pace with wage increases and price increases during the gravy years.
Should organizations begin to change their policies and practices related to hiring, employee treatment, and employee retention? If organizations do not change, what are the possible consequences?
Should organizations start investing more in labor saving devices? If so, when is the right time for your organization?
Should more work be outsourced? Should some work groups be reduced over time?
By 2014, will publicly traded companies be required to disclose their employee turnover rates, their employee retention rates, their manpower planning, and other similar factors pertaining to their ability to continue to conduct certain lines of business?
When will the accountants, auditors, and the US Securities and Exchange Commission force such changes? Would you want such information if it impacted the value of your investments?
The websites referenced above do not answer such questions but you might want to ponder these questions as you read segments of these web sites. Should your organization or you individually take any long term steps?
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Copyright © 2004 by Tom Crouch -- The
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in the above article do not purport to represent the views of any professional association or the views of any employer.
Watch for the more on this subject from the author!