Shortage of U.S. skilled workers by 2020?
By Tom Crouch, CPA, CIA, CISA, and Attorney
Note: Click here for Parts 1 & 2 of this article
According to AARP, thirteen percent of 2000’s work force was aged 55 and older. The number will climb to seventeen percent by 2010.
The U.S. Government Accountability Office (previously the General Accounting Office or GAO) noted that the U.S. work force has doubled during the past 50 years. However, the labor force is expected to grow at about one-third the previous rate during the next 50 years.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) says 76 million baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) will be retiring over the next 25 years. After 1964 there is a generational dip. There are only 58 million GenXers (born between 1965 and 1980) to replace the baby boomers. As the baby boomers retire, the workforce will grow at a much lower level.
The first baby boomers, born in 1946, will turn 62 in 2008, and turn 65 in 2011. The last baby boomers, born in 1964, will turn 65 in 2029. Unless more people work longer or a higher percentage of people work, the total labor pool could decrease each year from 2008 through 2029. In fact, many sources expect the work force to shrink between 2010 and 2020.
A higher and higher skill level is expected in most jobs. Even if the number of skilled workers needed in the work force were to remain constant from 2008 through 2029, a higher percentage of available workers probably will need to be moved into those skilled labor jobs just to maintain the same number of skilled laborers. Even if the total labor pool were to remain constant from 2008 through 2029, the skilled laborer percentage of the work force is still expected to increase due to escalating skill requirements.
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary and current Harvard University president Larry Summers has been widely quoted on the coming skilled labor shortage. He regards a skilled labor shortage as all but inevitable.
Part 4 --- Where will skilled labor shortages emerge early?
Organizations where employees can retire after 30 years are expected to have skilled labor shortages emerge early. These type organizations include all levels of government work. This would include public school systems and public colleges. The oldest baby boomers in these type jobs reached 30 years of service in 1998, and the youngest baby boomers can reach 30 years by 2016. It looks like very few of the baby boomers will still be in these type jobs after 2016.
The U.S. Federal government is expected to have about 40% of their work force retire by 2010. Tennessee state government is also expected to have 40% retire by 2010.
Many observers have projected a shortage of public school teachers due to teacher retirements.
The Hyde Group has noted that 70% of college teachers/professors are expected to retire by 2010. Some observers have suggested that the 70% noted might be closer to 45% to 50%, which is still very high. There might be adjunct professors who could fill the gap.
Part 5 ---- Job Skills Needed versus Skills of People Available
There will be more job openings without a match. Job openings might not be filled because:
· Undesirable location to the qualified applicants,
· Change in job requirements, and
· Applicants available are not trained, experienced, or qualified for the job.
The National Association of Manufacturers says many well- paid manufacturing jobs remain unfilled. These open jobs require two and four year technical degrees, and short-term skill certificates. Their own study showed 80 percent of the surveyed manufacturers reported a moderate to serious shortage of qualified applicants even though manufacturing was then suffering serious layoffs.
Many people seem to assume that the coming skilled labor shortage will mean that there will be more jobs than workers for their occupation and in their work region. The more likely situation will be a shortage for some skilled labor jobs in their work region but not necessarily in their occupation. Also, the openings for their occupation might be in another city or state. A particular occupation might have job openings in a city in 2014 and no more openings until 2018. For example, a region might need a chemical engineer, a high school math teacher, an air conditioner repairman, and a nurse, while not needing an elementary school teacher, a lawyer, a roofer, or a social worker.
There are likely to be skilled labor shortages but they might not match up well with a skilled worker in a given location at a particular time. The skilled labor shortage will have many mismatches among occupations, specific qualifications needed, locations, when workers are available, and when jobs are open.
Copyright © 2005 by Tom Crouch - This article may be forwarded via e-mail or fax. Also, the article may be reprinted or posted on a web site, so long as the copyright is shown. All other rights are reserved.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the above article do not purport to represent the views of any professional association or the views of any employer.
