Shortage of U.S. skilled workers by 2020?

The Impending Crisis in the Workplace

Currently, there are skilled labor shortages in the following categories: nurses, public high school teachers (50% of public high school teachers are expected to retire between 2005 and 2010, and there are too few replacements), several manufacturing technical trades, many niches in the allied health field, and others. If you want to find more skilled labor shortages, contact the technical colleges in your area. The faculties and administrators at any of the technical colleges will tell you that there are already many skilled labor shortages. Spokesmen for the National Association of Manufacturers have made similar comments.
 

The number and magnitude of such skilled labor shortages are expected to increase each year through 2020. The emerging skilled labor shortages are likely to be very evident no later than 2010. The skilled labor shortage might not end before 2030. The dilemma is also amplified by a number of long-term trends in the marketplace, including the impending retirement of baby boomers, slower population growth and global competition for jobs.

1946 was the first year of the baby boomer wave. The first boomer wave is now age 60. A majority of workers take early Social Security at age 62. One news publication stated that the new retirement age from companies is 59. Most employees of companies already choose to retire by age 60.

While there will be skilled labor shortages, there will be fewer unskilled labor jobs. There are likely to be far too many unskilled people chasing the unskilled labor jobs. The surplus of unskilled labor might become a huge problem for our economy and our society.

Will manpower planning or workforce planning become a key part of organizational planning? Will the trade and industry groups help lead the way in structuring solutions as we move forward? Are companies ready for this coming skilled labor gap?

Proactive steps should enable the skilled labor shortage to be successfully tackled. Where proactive steps are not taken, the road might be very bumpy. The better job we do of reducing the expected skilled labor shortage, the better we should be able to alleviate the expected unskilled labor surplus problem. Tom Crouch, the author, would like to see everyone do well so we can all enjoy a prosperous future.

Tom Crouch has written a series of articles on this subject. Following are links to all the articles Tom has written. All of these articles were featured on the AuditNet Web Site.

Part 1 --- Overview

Part 2 --- Wage Levels

Part 3 --- Data impacting job market

Part 4 --- Where will skilled labor shortages emerge early? 

Part 5 ---- Job Skills Needed versus Skills of People Available

Part 6 --- Why to Consider Manpower Planning?

Part 7 -- Never Say Never

Part 8 – Key Process Continuity

Part 9 - Public High School Teacher Shortage Looming

Part 10 - Hiring non-traditional employees is still an option

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